Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7333…1f25 crypto 1120 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$706 (-2%) realized −$1,107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate81%942W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$500
7 days−$500
14 days−$500
30 days−$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$605
world 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -47.9% -52.9% 49% 0% -42.1%
≤30d 94 -47.9% -52.9% 49% 0% -42.1%
≤90d 100 -46.6% -51.6% 49% 2% -41.4%
all 1164 -8.9% -17.6% 81% 7% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 7% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 4% -20.0%
15% -32.7% 3% -27.7%
20% -39.3% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses942 / 222
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1164 / 1120
History coverage119d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$4 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$7 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$23 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$9 -616%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$6 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$5 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$20 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$7 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records