Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7331…cf8a crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$120 (-1%) realized −$121 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate86%59W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$739now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$51
other 38% +$12
tech 8% +$5
politics 7% −$43
world 3% −$43
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -1.2% -10.6% 80% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 20 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.2%
all 69 -9.5% -18.1% 86% 1% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 1% -10.5%
10% -25.9% 1% -19.1%
15% -33.1% 0% -26.9%
20% -39.6% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$24 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$739
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses59 / 10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)69 / 74
History coverage610d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $213 $213 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $200 +$2 (+1%)
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $132 $132 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? No 96¢ 96¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $258 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 08 $80 −$6 -7%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $231 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $210 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 18 $70 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $285 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 08 $128 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 08 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 08 $173 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 15 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 15 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 15 $385 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Apr 01 $180 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $205 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $315 +$5 +2%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $115 +$2 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? Mar 03 $280 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $279 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 2-8? Feb 26 $230 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Feb 08 $35 +$1 +3%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 08 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 08 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 08 $218 $0 +0%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 5-11? Jan 16 $128 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 10 $120 +$3 +2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 10 $278 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 10 $320 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $300 +$1 +0%
Will BNB reach $1400 in November? Dec 05 $125 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 05 $290 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 05 $300 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 26 $420 +$3 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 26 $35 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 11 $235 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 30 $220 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 25 $215 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 20 $230 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600 or more times September 5–12? Oct 11 $170 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 09 $90 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 435–449 times August 1–August 8? Sep 09 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25? Aug 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 07 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $213 1h
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $132 1h
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 9d
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $258 12d
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 12d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? BUY No 96¢ $55 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $74 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $151 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $150 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $198 33d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $210 33d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $285 43d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $70 43d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $231 43d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $128 61d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $129 61d
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 65d
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $92 66d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 66d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $173 66d
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 66d
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 66d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 79d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $265 80d
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 80d
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $35 80d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY No 100¢ $180 96d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $117 96d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $205 108d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $265 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $739.34 · official $739.34 (match) · 151 history records