Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x732f…201e other 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$190 (+0%) realized +$530 · open −$340
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%30W / 180L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day104.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3,898now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$3,667
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -45.6% -50.7% 9% 9% -59.6%
≤30d 202 -42.1% -47.6% 14% 13% -36.2%
≤90d 210 -34.8% -41.0% 14% 14% -28.6%
all 210 -34.8% -41.0% 14% 14% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.0% 14% -28.6%
10% ← realistic here -46.7% 13% -35.5%
15% -51.8% 12% -41.7%
20% -56.5% 11% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,071 vs −$290 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$3,898
Realized+$530
Unrealized−$340
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses30 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Open positions32
Markets (closed)210 / 119
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$488
Trades / day104.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 47¢ 69¢ $1,319 $1,932 +$613 (+46%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $470 $1,000 +$530 (+113%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 42¢ 18¢ $661 $273 −$388 (-59%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $199 $231 +$32 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $74 $149 +$76 (+102%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $95 $145 +$50 (+53%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $38 $55 +$17 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $23 +$11 (+100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $38 $17 −$21 (-56%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $38 $8 −$30 (-78%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $38 $6 −$32 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $124 $6 −$118 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $6 −$44 (-89%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $38 $6 −$33 (-86%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $4 −$35 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $2 −$37 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $620 $1 −$619 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$32 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 16 $514 −$505 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to Apri Jun 16 $703 −$703 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 16 $388 −$388 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $87 −$36 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 16 $593 −$593 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 16 $716 −$716 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 16 $221 −$228 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 16 $47 −$39 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 16 $860 −$995 -116%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $446 +$50 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 16 $423 +$110 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 16 $1,366 −$1,366 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $538 −$500 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 16 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $1,763 −$1,829 -104%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 16 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 16 $398 −$395 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Jun 16 $196 −$221 -113%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 16 $363 −$21 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 16 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $839 −$1,207 -144%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$226 +4102%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 16 $465 −$558 -120%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 16 $152 −$154 -101%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 16 $30 −$27 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 16 $529 −$290 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 16 $697 −$614 -88%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 16 $280 −$378 -135%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 16 $120 −$126 -105%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 16 $149 −$149 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 10m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 13m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 39m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 39m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 45m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $59 45m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $48 48m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $65 52m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 54m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 54m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 54m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 54m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 55m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $99 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $175 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $48 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $194 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $120 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,898.46 · official $3,898.75 (match) · 3500 history records