Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x7328…dbff
weather · 1078 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$441 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$166 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$199
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses555 / 444
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions79
Markets (closed)999 / 1078
History coverage580d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 79 History 999 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$42
14 days+$102
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 17¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+89%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15? Yes 10¢ 18¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 29¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$4 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $8 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$5 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% +$148
world 6% +$8
politics 2% +$8
other 1% +$3
sports 1% +$10
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 9m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 10m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 12m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 26m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 43m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 53m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 53m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 55m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 57m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 487 +3.3% -6.6% 55% 46% -7.4%
≤30d 889 +5.0% -5.0% 55% 43% -6.4%
≤90d 907 +4.7% -5.3% 54% 43% -6.1%
all 999 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 45% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 45% -5.7%
10% -15.0% 33% -14.7%
15% -23.2% 21% -23.0%
20% -30.7% 13% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.53 · official $199.21 (match) · 3161 history records