Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7328…8b11 world 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% $0
other 23% $0
sports 6% +$1
politics 5% +$1
culture 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 19% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 -0.5% -10.0% 19% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -3.1% -12.3% 39% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage475d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $82 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -8%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +3%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 French Open? May 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 25 $13 $0 +2%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? Apr 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 4 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $16 $0 -1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 01 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 29 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 23 $18 $0 +0%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 23 $16 +$1 +4%
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 20 $13 +$1 +6%
Will "Wicked" win Best Sound at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $3 $0 -12%
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 02 $17 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 10m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $47 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $47 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $17 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $21 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $41 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $16 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $18 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $26 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $15 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $5 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $12 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $43 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.29 · official $7.29 (match) · 116 history records