Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
73 0x7326…cf4c other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$180 (+16%) realized +$117 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$117
14 days+$117
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$68
sports 9% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 50% +5.2%
≤30d 4 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 50% +5.2%
≤90d 4 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 50% +5.2%
all 4 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 50% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 50% +5.2%
10% -25.6% 50% -4.9%
15% -32.8% 25% -14.0%
20% -39.4% 0% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$25 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage117d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $263 $260 −$4 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $125 $112 −$12 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $325 −$49 -15%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $291 +$135 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $276 1h
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 67¢ $276 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $133 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $101 7h
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 72¢ $325 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $291 22h
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 1¢ $2 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.18 · official $372.18 (match) · 10 history records