Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:05:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7325…2936 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-21%) realized −$144 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%22W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$18
14 days−$34
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$40
other 33% −$12
world 11% −$7
crypto 9% −$35
politics 8% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.7% -21.9% 44% 44% -15.0%
≤30d 24 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 46% -20.0%
≤90d 24 -10.1% -18.7% 46% 46% -20.0%
all 50 -23.2% -30.5% 44% 38% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 38% -31.1%
10% -37.2% 36% -37.7%
15% -43.2% 30% -43.7%
20% -48.8% 28% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage182d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $60 $73 +$13 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 +$13 +65%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$21 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +206%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$19 +93%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$10 +188%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 $0 +26%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Senegal vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Senegal vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Jan 08 $10 +$24 +242%
Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-L Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Happy New Year" this week? (December 29 - January 4) Jan 04 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference Jan 03 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jan 03 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Donald Trump say "oil" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jan 03 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lag Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "2026" this week? (December 29 - January 4) Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 22? Dec 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 22? Dec 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $0 $0 +33%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Dec 21 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Dec 21 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 21 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 20 $1 +$1 +98%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $8 −$5 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $60 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 25h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $20 27h
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 45h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $25 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner BUY Curaçao 19¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $10 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 6d
Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $5 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 8d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 20d
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 79¢ $1 20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 20d
Senegal vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 151d
Senegal vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $5 151d
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $40 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $20 162d
Will Donald Trump say "cocaine" at least five times during his Mar-a-L BUY Yes 24¢ $10 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.13 · official $73.06 (match) · 79 history records