Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7320…0a3f crypto 1059 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-3%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%526W / 533L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$43
14 days−$59
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$77
weather 29% −$43
other 2% −$17
sports 1% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -10.2% -18.7% 0% 0% -15.6%
≤30d 177 -21.0% -28.5% 30% 21% -17.5%
≤90d 901 -12.1% -20.5% 45% 38% -17.8%
all 1059 -5.9% -14.8% 50% 42% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 42% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 36% -23.1%
15% -30.4% 28% -30.5%
20% -37.2% 14% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses526 / 533
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1059 / 1059
History coverage108d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1059 Trades
no open positions (136 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $36 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $0 $0 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $17 −$13 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 19 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $52 −$7 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 18 $23 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $27 −$4 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $36 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $31 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $53 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $32 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 15 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $25 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 168.5 Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $6 $0 +3%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 09 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 04 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 28 $3 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 69¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 6¢ $1 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 10¢ $3 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 34¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? SELL No 44¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 44¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $17 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 63¢ $31 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 71¢ $36 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 59¢ $29 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 60¢ $30 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 53¢ $22 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 53¢ $23 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 46¢ $18 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 71¢ $9 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $9 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 71¢ $21 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 72¢ $6 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $27 45h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 64¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 64¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 65¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2840 history records