Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
73 0x731c…cf86 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$231 (+38%) realized +$165 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$123
14 days+$160
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$318
sports 25% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +64.8% +49.1% 50% 50% +47.2%
≤30d 11 +29.2% +16.9% 55% 55% +24.3%
≤90d 11 +29.2% +16.9% 55% 55% +24.3%
all 11 +29.2% +16.9% 55% 55% +24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 55% +24.3%
10% +5.7% 55% +12.4%
15% -4.5% 55% +1.5%
20% -13.9% 27% -8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$21 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)11 / 21
History coverage18d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $20 $46 +$26 (+131%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+68%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 53¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+55%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 70¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $53 +$38 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $58 +$27 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 23 $21 +$122 +570%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$13 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 +$44 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$8 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $21 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $32 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 6d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 12d
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 12d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $21 12d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 12d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $105 13d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 18d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 18d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 18d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.57 · official $269.51 (match) · 52 history records