Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x731a…04bd other 653 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,062 (+1%) realized +$5,062 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%635W / 18L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$593per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$222
14 days+$548
30 days+$1,457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% +$1,661
finance 30% +$1,157
tech 25% +$1,188
sports 4% +$110
crypto 4% +$771
world 3% +$21
economics 0% +$7
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +1.2% -8.5% 94% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 159 +0.8% -8.8% 96% 1% -7.9%
≤90d 401 +0.5% -9.0% 97% 1% -8.5%
all 653 +1.0% -8.7% 97% 1% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 1% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$643) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×17.59 per $1 lost it wins $17.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,062
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses635 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)653 / 653
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$593
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 653 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 Jun 20 $494 +$2 +0%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1,312 +$13 +1%
Will Micron (MU) close at $900-$920 on the final day of trading of the Jun 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $146 +$1 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $2,993 +$77 +3%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $140 +$1 +1%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $182 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 18 $2,409 −$24 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 18 $0 $0 -5%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $2,014 +$12 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? Jun 17 $475 +$17 +4%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $256 +$4 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Jun 16 $554 +$6 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? Jun 16 $353 +$7 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 16? Jun 16 $517 +$6 +1%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $17 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? Jun 16 $656 +$50 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $3,697 +$22 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $572 +$6 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$2 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $697 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 15? Jun 15 $516 +$6 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? Jun 15 $116 +$1 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $381 +$3 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $950 −$95 -10%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $600 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $402 +$3 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $137.50 Week of June 8 202 Jun 12 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $530 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $97.50 Week of June 8 2 Jun 12 $284 +$6 +2%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of June 8 202 Jun 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of June 8 202 Jun 12 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $256 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $191 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $215? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $210? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $200? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $212 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $195? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,955 +$46 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL No 99¢ $99 3h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $990 2d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $322 2d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $182 2d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $146 2d
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $55 2d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $140 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $275 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $8 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $289 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $874 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $132 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $23 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $5 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $450 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $272 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $486 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $5 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $10 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $5 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $9 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $6 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 99¢ $183 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $306 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $180 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records