Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x7319…1a56 sports 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$193 (+7%) realized +$190 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%79W / 74L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$62
14 days−$40
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$361
other 34% −$100
crypto 6% +$1
world 0% +$1
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -8.5% -17.2% 44% 39% -20.2%
≤30d 62 +17.7% +6.5% 55% 53% -2.9%
≤90d 153 +1.3% -8.4% 52% 44% -0.2%
all 153 +1.3% -8.4% 52% 44% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 44% -0.2%
10% -17.1% 41% -9.8%
15% -25.1% 36% -18.5%
20% -32.5% 33% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$190
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses79 / 74
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 157
History coverage78d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 74¢ 78¢ $58 $61 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $27 −$15 -54%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 +$18 +72%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AN Jun 27 $24 +$17 +72%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $27 −$1 -5%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $22 −$1 -6%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $22 +$24 +105%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $24 +$2 +9%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $42 +$30 +73%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$48 +97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $42 +$21 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 −$21 -58%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1 +$1 +91%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/ Jun 20 $16 +$82 +510%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$23 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $12 −$7 -61%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$19 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $16 +$13 +80%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 +$1 +109%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $36 +$9 +25%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$7 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$23 -78%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $48 +$41 +86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$23 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 +$12 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 +$16 +105%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $62 +$37 +60%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $28 −$12 -41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$12 -53%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $12 −$3 -22%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $22 −$2 -8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $11 +$5 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$4 +152%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $9 +$9 +96%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $25 +$23 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $23 +$5 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $58 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $13 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $27 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY 57¢ $25 12h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $27 20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $21 29h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $26 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 57¢ $24 37h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $27 37h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $27 38h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $21 38h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $22 38h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $22 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $22 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 40¢ $61 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 53¢ $27 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 47¢ $24 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 67¢ $25 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $12 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bos BUY 22¢ $25 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $30 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals A BUY 27¢ $8 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $63 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 5d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $42 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 17¢ $15 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $37 5d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal v BUY 10¢ $11 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 97¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.74 · official $60.74 (match) · 340 history records