Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:58:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7319…5647 world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%28W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$10
politics 24% −$8
other 19% −$1
sports 12% −$7
crypto 5% −$1
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 20 -1.3% -10.7% 45% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 62 -0.8% -10.2% 31% 0% -9.9%
all 83 -2.6% -11.9% 34% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 1% -10.4%
10% -20.3% 1% -19.0%
15% -28.0% 1% -26.8%
20% -35.1% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses28 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage527d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $28 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$8 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $74 −$2 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $84 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $64 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $114 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $73 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $57 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $37 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $4 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $42 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $137 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $10 $0 +2%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $1 $0 -13%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $77 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 07 $81 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $28 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $28 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $28 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $18 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $37 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $36 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.74 · official $27.54 (match) · 328 history records