Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
73 0x7317…19ae other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$6
other 34% −$3
economics 7% $0
crypto 5% +$3
politics 4% $0
weather 4% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% +$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.4% -5.5% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 8 +1.1% -8.6% 62% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 8 +1.1% -8.6% 62% 0% -8.2%
all 42 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 7% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 7% -8.5%
10% -18.1% 2% -17.3%
15% -26.0% 2% -25.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage474d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $61 +$2 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $68 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -4%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Dec 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $3 $0 +8%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $11 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $13 +$2 +15%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? May 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +21%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 06 $8 +$4 +48%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Apr 02 $13 $0 +2%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 30 $16 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $17 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 18 $17 $0 +1%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $16 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $24 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $24 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $25 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $11 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $28 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $4 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $1 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $21 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $18 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $6 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $2 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $30 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $37 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $34 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $33 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $25 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $32 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $34 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.26 · official $40.04 (match) · 140 history records