Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
73 0x7316…3dca other 21 markets active 13h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$23 (+15%) realized +$26 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$1
sports 17% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +35.7% +22.8% 67% 50% +9.2%
≤30d 18 +35.7% +22.8% 67% 50% +9.2%
≤90d 18 +35.7% +22.8% 67% 50% +9.2%
all 18 +35.7% +22.8% 67% 50% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.8% 50% +9.2%
10% ← realistic here +11.1% 44% -1.3%
15% +0.3% 39% -10.8%
20% -9.5% 39% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 88¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 78¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +510%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$4 +19%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -84%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +78%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$16 +131%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$4 -35%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $19 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $29 13h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 13h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 14h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $19 14h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 16h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 19h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 20h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.60 · official $36.60 (match) · 59 history records