Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:00:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7315…3b94 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$100 (-4%) realized −$101 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$193
other 41% +$37
world 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.4% -20.8% 20% 20% -15.5%
≤30d 15 -12.4% -20.8% 20% 20% -15.5%
≤90d 15 -12.4% -20.8% 20% 20% -15.5%
all 15 -12.4% -20.8% 20% 20% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 20% -15.5%
10% -28.3% 20% -23.6%
15% -35.3% 20% -31.0%
20% -41.6% 20% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$278 vs −$84 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 26 $358 −$178 -50%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -97%
Norway to score first vs. France? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$59 -58%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $96 −$41 -43%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $357 −$159 -44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $335 −$193 -58%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $314 −$141 -45%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $304 +$272 +89%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $341 +$430 +126%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$9 -45%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$133 +324%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 −$13 -38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $104 −$47 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U BUY 13¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 48¢ $45 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goal BUY $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $11 17h
Norway to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $43 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 36¢ $55 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $180 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $96 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $198 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $357 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 18¢ $141 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $173 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 46¢ $182 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $261 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $153 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $576 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 3d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $771 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $137 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $11 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.54 · official $72.95 · 40 history records