Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x7314…9b04
other · 172 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$780 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$780 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$660
Realized+$780
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses33 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
Avg bet$1,333
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 2 History 170 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$92
14 days−$326
30 days−$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $570 $570 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $465 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,582 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,264 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $515 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,115 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,517 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,563 −$3 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $708 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,790 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,776 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $78 −$78 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5,259 −$6 -0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 02 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $234 +$1 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $429 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $5,722 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $8,528 −$9 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $2,166 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $310 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $284 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $316 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $305 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,662 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,242 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $499 −$1 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 25 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,577 −$3 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $53 +$25 +48%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $492 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $541 −$1 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $71 −$71 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $54 +$57 +105%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $996 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% +$97
politics 43% −$114
sports 9% +$841
world 2% −$41
economics 1% −$3
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $571 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $453 4h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $454 7h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $546 25h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $546 29h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $461 32h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $461 33h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $535 47h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $535 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $514 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $515 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $510 3d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $89 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $511 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $531 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $532 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $575 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $576 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $549 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $550 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $474 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $475 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $547 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $548 6d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $68 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $706 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $708 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $710 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $711 8d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 63¢ $72 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -8.5% -17.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 65 -7.0% -15.8% 6% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 122 -10.8% -19.3% 6% 2% -9.6%
all 170 -1.5% -10.9% 19% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 9% -9.2%
10% -19.4% 9% -17.9%
15% -27.2% 8% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $659.55 · official $659.55 (match) · 611 history records