Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
73 0x7313…9559 other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$14
politics 27% −$9
sports 11% +$18
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 114 +0.5% -9.1% 7% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 4% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×10.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage129d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $206 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $345 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $175 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $389 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $353 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $179 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $186 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $213 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $406 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $200 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $174 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $173 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $156 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $208 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $455 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $156 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $368 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $202 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $226 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $422 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $428 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $436 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $209 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $592 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $212 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $34 14d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $34 14d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 17d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 26d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 33d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 34d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $175 34d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $175 37d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $220 47d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $220 47d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 48d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 48d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $179 48d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $179 49d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $186 49d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $186 49d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 49d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 49d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $208 51d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $208 51d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $198 51d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $198 52d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $200 52d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 52d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $174 52d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $174 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.97 · official $56.97 (match) · 356 history records