Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:51:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
73 0x7313…51a8 world 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$828 (+49%) realized +$828 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +143% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +120% what you keep after slip
Net edge+120%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days+$941
30 days+$798
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$134
world 37% +$8
other 9% +$955
politics 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+119.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.7% -15.6% 0% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 8 +213.9% +184.0% 50% 25% +129.8%
≤90d 12 +142.7% +119.6% 50% 17% +34.6%
all 12 +142.7% +119.6% 50% 17% +34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +119.6% 17% +34.6%
10% +98.6% 8% +21.7%
15% +79.4% 8% +10.0%
20% +61.8% 8% -0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +143% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +300% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$33 · ×4.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.95 per $1 lost it wins $5.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$828
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage75d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$5 -13%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 11 $50 +$945 +1900%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $56 +$1 +2%
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $70 +$7 +10%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 02 $80 −$80 -100%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 02 $80 +$10 +12%
Spread: Gaziantep FK (-2.5) Apr 26 $425 +$22 +5%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 25 $425 $0 -0%
Spread: Pisa SC (-1.5) Apr 11 $303 +$4 +1%
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Apr 10 $16 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $32 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $33 2h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $32 2h
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL Yes $16 6d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL Yes $17 6d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY Yes $19 6d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY Yes $19 6d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes $25 13d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes $25 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $29 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $28 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $29 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $28 13d
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) BUY Armenia $41 17d
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) BUY Armenia $38 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $40 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $37 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $35 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $35 17d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana $41 22d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana $40 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes $46 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes $44 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes $16 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes $24 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes $24 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes $16 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records