Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7311…2cf5 sports 584 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,442 (+0%) realized +$3,441 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate83%513W / 107L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$1,524per market
Trades / day73.4pace
Fees−$199est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$4,655
other 10% +$438
crypto 0% +$3
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -17.4% -25.3% 58% 6% -10.7%
≤30d 459 -5.0% -14.1% 80% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 620 -4.3% -13.4% 83% 7% -9.4%
all 620 -4.3% -13.4% 83% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 7% -9.4%
10% -21.7% 3% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -29.3% 2% -26.0%
20% -36.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,814) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$48 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized+$3,441
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses513 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$199
Open positions2
Markets (closed)620 / 584
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$1,524
Trades / day73.4
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 620 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $304 $305 +$1 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Under 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs regain - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on March 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Panthers vs. Kraken: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $199 −$199 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Change The Game - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,814 −$1,814 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $394 −$394 -100%
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers: O/U 246.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 26? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 26? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Penguins vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 1 Winne Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs QUAZAR - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5 Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Pelicans vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Jones vs Sekulic Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $989 −$989 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Stels - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9,970 +$20 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $4,950 +$50 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10,008 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 +$106 +4014%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $106 −$6 -6%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $555 +$6 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $82 −$1 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $950 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 99¢ $9 8m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $148 52m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $156 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $3,626 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $294 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.86 · official $313.85 (match) · 3500 history records