Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x730a…2710 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (205 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$14 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%35W / 19L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day205.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,010
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (205 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +16.4% +5.3% 65% 63% +11.0%
≤30d 54 +16.4% +5.3% 65% 63% +11.0%
≤90d 54 +16.4% +5.3% 65% 63% +11.0%
all 54 +16.4% +5.3% 65% 63% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover205.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.3% 63% +11.0%
10% ← realistic here -4.8% 59% +0.4%
15% -14.0% 54% -9.3%
20% -22.4% 50% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$80 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses35 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage1d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day205.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 55¢ 52¢ $150 $143 −$7 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $312 +$449 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $206 +$229 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $180 −$170 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $409 +$162 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $130 +$92 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$98 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $78 +$84 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$34 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $414 −$414 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $206 +$166 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$103 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $206 +$160 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $114 +$87 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $114 +$90 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $145 +$91 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$54 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$45 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$45 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$43 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$27 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$32 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$43 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $451 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $53 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $311 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $435 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $50 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $22 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $240 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $331 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $222 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.28 · official $151.46 · 234 history records