Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x730a…51a0 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$7,278 (+4%) realized +$7,546 · open −$268
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate60%59W / 39L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,398per market
Trades / day76.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4,986now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1,218
crypto 27% +$1,975
finance 22% +$336
politics 3% +$46
other 3% +$111
tech 0% +$92
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +10.0% -0.4% 49% 37% -6.4%
≤30d 86 +31.3% +18.8% 63% 33% -7.8%
≤90d 98 +29.4% +17.1% 60% 32% -7.8%
all 98 +29.4% +17.1% 60% 32% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.1% 32% -7.8%
10% +5.9% 19% -16.6%
15% ← realistic here -4.4% 14% -24.7%
20% -13.7% 13% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,048) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$54 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$4,986
Realized+$7,546
Unrealized−$268
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses59 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions35
Markets (closed)98 / 133
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$1,398
Trades / day76.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $600 $597 −$3 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $600 $597 −$3 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $592 $535 −$57 (-10%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $280 $264 −$16 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $220 $225 +$5 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $200 $178 −$22 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $136 $136 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $150 $130 −$20 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $128 $126 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $132 $119 −$13 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $89 $71 −$18 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $56 $64 +$8 (+13%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Yes $77 $59 −$18 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $42 $41 −$2 (-4%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes $90 $38 −$52 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$145 +72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $983 −$10 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $3,553 −$145 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $24 +$22 +94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $22,847 −$288 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 19 $74 −$14 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 19 $80 +$25 +31%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 19 $50 −$16 -32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 18 $30 −$14 -47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 18 $1,048 −$92 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 18 $3,434 −$397 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 18 $1,152 −$62 -5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $479 +$1,611 +336%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 17 $266 +$198 +75%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 17 $42 +$7 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $700 +$50 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 16 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 16 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $855 +$5 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 15 $61 −$29 -48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 15 $185 −$24 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $817 +$183 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $1,161 +$7 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $40 −$4 -10%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $35 +$5 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $13,521 +$283 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 11 $41 +$37 +90%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $15,625 −$202 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2,370 −$60 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 11 $50 +$10 +20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $13,601 +$91 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $22 58m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $402 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $602 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $60 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $301 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $249 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $6 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $2 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $2 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,985.71 · official $4,986.17 (match) · 3500 history records