Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:13:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7308…ad3c other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$5
politics 19% −$1
world 14% −$1
crypto 12% $0
tech 7% −$1
economics 4% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -6.1% -15.0% 8% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 50 -4.6% -13.7% 4% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 145 -4.0% -13.1% 4% 0% -13.0%
all 248 -3.5% -12.6% 7% 1% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 1% -12.2%
10% -21.0% 0% -20.6%
15% -28.6% 0% -28.3%
20% -35.6% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 230
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage225d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -50%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove Jun 10 $1 $0 -21%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 08 $3 $0 -5%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -3%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $1 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $1 $0 -5%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -24%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? May 30 $2 $0 -3%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? May 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 27 $1 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? May 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 25 $2 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? May 23 $1 $0 -3%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc. May 22 $1 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? May 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? May 19 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $1 48m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 49m
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $1 24h
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $1 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 25h
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $1 25h
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 2d
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4d
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp SELL No 93¢ $1 4d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 4d
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL No 97¢ $1 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $1 5d
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In SELL No 87¢ $1 6d
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In BUY No 90¢ $1 6d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El SELL No 93¢ $1 6d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El BUY No 95¢ $1 6d
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove SELL Yes 78¢ $1 7d
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $1 7d
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 542 history records