Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7308…1cac world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% $0
other 18% −$1
politics 6% +$1
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.5% -8.1% 67% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -9.5%
all 34 -0.4% -9.8% 62% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage465d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $13 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $62 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $76 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $118 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $37 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $41 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $8 $0 -5%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 07 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on May 6? May 06 $8 $0 +2%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $7 +$1 +18%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $42 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $21 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $21 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $17 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $2 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $11 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $13 28h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $11 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $12 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $38 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $39 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $39 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.67 · official $41.67 (match) · 113 history records