Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7306…9409 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%11W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 83% −$14
politics 10% −$7
other 4% −$1
sports 2% −$64
world 1% +$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +12.8% +2.0% 20% 20% +0.2%
≤30d 17 +3.7% -6.2% 12% 6% -7.7%
≤90d 45 -6.3% -15.2% 20% 13% -14.8%
all 57 -5.1% -14.2% 19% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 11% -10.0%
10% -22.4% 11% -18.6%
15% -29.9% 9% -26.5%
20% -36.7% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses11 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage630d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $7 +$5 +65%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $90 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $4 +$7 +165%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $41 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +62%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $12 +$4 +31%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Stars vs. Penguins Apr 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 27 $22 +$29 +133%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 25 $51 $0 +0%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 24 $21 +$13 +63%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 05 $5 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $13,528 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 11h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 14h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 37h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 40h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $7 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.97 · official $35.97 (match) · 257 history records