Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7302…fddd world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$7
other 21% +$1
politics 8% +$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 13 +1.4% -8.3% 46% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 13 +1.4% -8.3% 46% 0% -8.4%
all 42 -1.9% -11.2% 52% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage459d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $48 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $84 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $0 $0 -11%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 16 $24 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? Jun 07 $13 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +7%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change? Apr 11 $14 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 11 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $13 $0 -1%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 30 $13 $0 +4%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 21¢ $2 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $6 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $17 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $51 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $16 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $50 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $48 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $15 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $18 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 49¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $27 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $19 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $48 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.04 · official $47.04 (match) · 109 history records