Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7301…26cd world 38 markets active 16h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$1
14 days+$10
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$26
other 16% +$1
sports 0% −$6
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 22% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 +2.5% -7.3% 29% 7% -8.4%
≤90d 30 +1.3% -8.3% 30% 7% -8.5%
all 38 -1.4% -10.8% 39% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 5% -8.8%
10% -19.4% 3% -17.5%
15% -27.2% 3% -25.5%
20% -34.3% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 85% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage518d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $68 +$2 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $41 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $46 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $64 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $11 −$1 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $180 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $157 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $128 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $105 +$12 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $61 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $67 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $70 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $57 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $99 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $63 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $25 +$17 +69%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 12 $263 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 27 $3 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 25 $3 $0 +3%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 18 $3 $0 -12%
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Jan 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $0 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $22 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $41 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $45 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $23 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $23 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $64 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $58 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $63 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $63 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records