Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x7300…e52c
weather · 804 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$29,306 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40,882 · open +$11,653
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50,889
Realized+$40,882
Unrealized+$11,653
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses195 / 292
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2,312
Open positions223
Markets (closed)487 / 804
History coverage5d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day592.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 223 History 487 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13,225
7 days+$40,882
14 days+$40,882
30 days+$40,882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 25¢ 86¢ $4,922 $16,977 +$12,055 (+245%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? No 91¢ 98¢ $6,173 $6,646 +$472 (+8%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 13¢ 81¢ $850 $5,195 +$4,346 (+511%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 69¢ 70¢ $3,450 $3,525 +$75 (+2%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 48¢ 50¢ $2,219 $2,335 +$116 (+5%)
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 92¢ $881 $922 +$41 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $890 $905 +$15 (+2%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 54¢ $870 $895 +$25 (+3%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 18¢ $685 $645 −$41 (-6%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Parks Alycia Parks 18¢ 24¢ $489 $636 +$147 (+30%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 80¢ 86¢ $576 $619 +$43 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 75¢ 95¢ $473 $597 +$125 (+26%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 68¢ $637 $544 −$92 (-14%)
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? No 86¢ 98¢ $429 $488 +$59 (+14%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 42¢ 48¢ $390 $449 +$59 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 73¢ 86¢ $365 $433 +$69 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 60¢ 54¢ $480 $429 −$51 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 84¢ $325 $388 +$63 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $345 $342 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 26¢ $366 $322 −$44 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 62¢ 78¢ $239 $303 +$64 (+27%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 100¢ $10 $290 +$280 (+2699%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 46¢ $202 $261 +$59 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $289 $251 −$38 (-13%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 9¢ 10¢ $233 $246 +$13 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 14 $390 −$390 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on June 12? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 6? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +500%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 27? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 9? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $166 −$166 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 31? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 14 $468 −$468 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 27? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $191 −$191 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 31? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 4? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 4? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 3? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 3? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Potapova vs. Kalinskaya: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 6? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 31? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% +$59,600
other 22% −$2,490
crypto 4% +$379
weather 3% +$2,780
world 0% +$15
politics 0% −$6
culture 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 37¢ $38 9m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 38¢ $21 9m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 40¢ $14 9m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY No 93¢ $1,428 13m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY No 20¢ $9 54m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $697 54m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY No 60¢ $508 57m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $1,842 59m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY No 96¢ $1,922 59m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY No 97¢ $1,944 59m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY No 97¢ $664 59m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $65 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $60 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? SELL No 31¢ $16 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 69¢ $7 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $71 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 42¢ $105 2h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Curaçao 82¢ $41 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 35¢ $7 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 43¢ $215 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 5¢ $2 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 30¢ $15 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 41¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 487 +30.8% +18.3% 40% 38% +14.8%
≤30d 487 +30.8% +18.3% 40% 38% +14.8%
≤90d 487 +30.8% +18.3% 40% 38% +14.8%
all 487 +30.8% +18.3% 40% 38% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover592.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.3% 38% +14.8%
10% ← realistic here +7.0% 34% +3.8%
15% -3.3% 32% -6.2%
20% -12.8% 29% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50,889.44 · official $50,906.91 (match) · 3500 history records