Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7300…8e4e other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate16%7W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$25
other 11% −$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +8.9% -1.5% 17% 11% -7.4%
≤90d 31 +2.3% -7.4% 16% 10% -9.4%
all 43 +1.4% -8.3% 16% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 7% -9.8%
10% -17.0% 5% -18.4%
15% -25.1% 5% -26.3%
20% -32.4% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses7 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage613d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $8 +$6 +83%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $237 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 18 $8 +$6 +79%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $50 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $115 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $60 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 09 $4 $0 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 09 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $2 $0 -7%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $11 $0 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 02 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $18 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $276 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $2,073 −$7 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $3,164 −$8 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 26 $1,429 −$7 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $14 5h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 9h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 28h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 30h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $8 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $21 23d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $11 23d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.38 · official $42.40 (match) · 380 history records