Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72ff…fe1f other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate28%16W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$3
world 24% $0
other 16% +$24
tech 3% +$2
sports 2% −$37
weather 1% +$20
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 -2.4% -11.7% 7% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 7% -8.9%
all 58 +6.7% -3.4% 28% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 12% -9.3%
10% -12.7% 10% -18.0%
15% -21.1% 10% -25.9%
20% -28.8% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses16 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage531d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 52¢ 69¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $7 −$1 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $47 +$9 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $13 −$2 -12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $6 −$2 -33%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $39 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $56 +$2 +3%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $64 −$3 -5%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $39 +$14 +37%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $55 −$4 -8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $223 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $246 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 02 $246 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $223 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $224 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 31 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $67 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $11 −$3 -29%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $6 $0 -6%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $5 $0 +7%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or May 19 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 25 $2 $0 +8%
San Francisco vs. Gonzaga Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Twente beat Bodo Glimt? Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Canucks Feb 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Devils vs. Canadiens Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $13 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $27 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $42 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $44 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $17 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records