Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x72fe…e2dc other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$134 (+20%) realized +$135 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$94
14 days+$126
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$132
crypto 6% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +19.0% +7.6% 62% 58% +9.9%
≤30d 44 +3.7% -6.2% 55% 52% +10.1%
≤90d 44 +3.7% -6.2% 55% 52% +10.1%
all 44 +3.7% -6.2% 55% 52% +10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 52% +10.1%
10% -15.2% 52% -0.5%
15% -23.4% 52% -10.1%
20% -30.9% 50% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Open positions7
Markets (closed)44 / 52
History coverage25d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 47¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $25 −$3 -11%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$19 +74%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$23 +148%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 +$13 +57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$32 +82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$6 +55%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $22 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $14 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $23 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 18h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $20 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 3d
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.77 · official $78.77 (match) · 122 history records