Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72fc…5cc6 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-7%) realized −$38 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -32.2% -38.7% 47% 47% -34.6%
≤30d 15 -32.2% -38.7% 47% 47% -34.6%
≤90d 15 -32.2% -38.7% 47% 47% -34.6%
all 15 -32.2% -38.7% 47% 47% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.7% 47% -34.6%
10% ← realistic here -44.6% 47% -40.9%
15% -49.9% 20% -46.6%
20% -54.8% 20% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 22¢ 30¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$6 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $48 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $41 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.52 · official $57.74 · 25 history records