Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72f3…d396 sports 247 markets active 20h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,044 (-8%) realized −$3,038 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%118W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$632est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$428
7 days−$1,221
14 days−$15,492
30 days−$9,887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,561
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -32.3% -38.8% 33% 33% -36.5%
≤30d 176 -33.4% -39.7% 34% 34% -40.6%
≤90d 246 -7.3% -16.1% 48% 48% -17.6%
all 246 -7.3% -16.1% 48% 48% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 48% -17.6%
10% -24.1% 48% -25.5%
15% -31.5% 45% -32.7%
20% -38.2% 43% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late -85% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$162 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$3,038
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses118 / 128
Est. fees paid−$632
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage54d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 46¢ $165 $159 −$6 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $168 −$165 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $168 −$165 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $167 +$122 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $168 −$165 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $167 −$165 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $167 −$165 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $111 +$62 +55%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $168 −$165 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $168 −$165 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $167 +$58 +35%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $168 +$213 +127%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $167 +$105 +63%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $168 −$165 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $167 −$165 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $168 −$165 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $168 −$165 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $56 −$3 -6%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $168 −$165 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $167 −$165 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $168 +$248 +148%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $168 +$263 +156%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $168 +$153 +92%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $167 +$144 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $168 −$165 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $168 −$165 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 $56 −$56 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 10 $166 −$166 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $168 −$52 -31%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Jun 10 $112 −$112 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $167 −$167 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $56 20h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $56 22h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $56 22h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $56 24h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $56 24h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $56 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $56 29h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $96 38h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $96 38h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $96 38h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $56 42h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $56 44h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $56 45h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $56 47h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $56 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $56 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $167 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $56 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $56 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $56 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $87 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $87 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $56 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $56 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 59¢ $56 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 59¢ $56 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $56 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $56 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $56 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $56 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.76 · official $158.76 (match) · 1104 history records