Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

72 0x72ef…cd31 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL −$51 (-27%) realized −$51 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +150% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +108% what you keep after slip

Net edge+108%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+125.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+149.6%	+125.8%	50%	50%	+81.6%
≤30d	6	+149.6%	+125.8%	50%	50%	+81.6%
≤90d	6	+149.6%	+125.8%	50%	50%	+81.6%
all	6	+149.6%	+125.8%	50%	50%	+81.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+125.8%	50%	+81.6%
10%	+104.2%	50%	+64.3%
15%	+84.5%	50%	+48.4%
20%	+66.4%	50%	+33.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +101% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +150% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$98 vs −$35 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$310

Realized−$51

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 23	$27	−$27	-100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 23	$32	+$34	+106%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 22	$49	+$252	+512%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$40	−$39	-97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	Jun 22	$41	−$40	-97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$2	+$8	+553%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	7¢	$13	1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	7¢	$15	1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal?	SELL Yes	17¢	$66	1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	8¢	$7	2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	8¢	$17	2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	16¢	$49	7h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	12¢	$40	10h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria?	BUY Yes	4¢	$41	10h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	15¢	$2	11h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.00 · official $310.00 (match) · 10 history records