Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

72
0x72ef…3d3b
world · 111 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$1,280 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,073 · open +$234
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,608
Realized+$1,073
Unrealized+$234
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses49 / 46
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions16
Markets (closed)95 / 111
History coverage90d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 16 History 95 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$341
14 days+$880
30 days+$948
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 70¢ 67¢ $536 $516 −$20 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 33¢ 57¢ $216 $374 +$158 (+73%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 24¢ 42¢ $164 $295 +$131 (+80%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $139 $116 −$23 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $51 $72 +$21 (+41%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $43 $58 +$15 (+34%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $47 $36 −$11 (-24%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 47¢ 30¢ $31 $19 −$11 (-37%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-88%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? No 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Maja Chwalinska 19¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $165 +$72 +44%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $31 +$27 +90%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $334 −$126 -38%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $165 +$122 +74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $17 +$9 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $27 +$11 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 12 $121 +$9 +8%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $154 +$85 +55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $146 +$14 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $27 −$21 -78%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $67 +$26 +38%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$11 -70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $165 +$50 +30%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $70 +$8 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $14 +$21 +151%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $136 −$66 -48%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $199 −$62 -31%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $48 −$46 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $44 −$6 -13%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $102 −$58 -56%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $31 −$20 -64%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $37 −$3 -8%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $157 +$90 +58%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 04 $101 +$81 +79%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $51 −$47 -92%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $229 +$419 +183%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $467 +$259 +55%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $311 −$27 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 24 $72 −$70 -98%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 24 $45 −$45 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $16 +$6 +36%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $602 −$24 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $358 +$130 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $11 +$58 +533%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $154 +$66 +43%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 21 $83 +$26 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $342 −$37 -11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 18 $164 +$53 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 54% +$1,416
finance 22% −$232
sports 22% +$124
other 1% +$8
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 72¢ $111 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 82¢ $126 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 52¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 49¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 58¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 61¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 60¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL Virtus.pro 81¢ $58 2h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $10 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $119 22h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 22h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $49 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $40 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $64 22h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $54 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $10 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $11 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $67 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $4 22h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $5 23h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 23h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 0¢ $0 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 58¢ $287 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 0¢ $0 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 0¢ $0 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 33¢ $165 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +13.1% +2.4% 68% 55% +8.2%
≤30d 50 +7.5% -2.8% 52% 46% +6.8%
≤90d 95 +0.7% -8.8% 52% 42% -1.7%
all 95 +0.7% -8.8% 52% 42% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 42% -1.7%
10% -17.6% 32% -11.1%
15% -25.5% 24% -19.7%
20% -32.8% 15% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,607.94 · official $1,607.94 (match) · 790 history records