Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72ec…ec9b crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized −$2 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$11
crypto 41% −$170
politics 11% +$2
weather 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -30.7% -37.3% 57% 43% -42.1%
≤30d 14 -30.7% -37.3% 57% 43% -42.1%
≤90d 14 -30.7% -37.3% 57% 43% -42.1%
all 14 -30.7% -37.3% 57% 43% -42.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.3% 43% -42.1%
10% ← realistic here -43.3% 14% -47.6%
15% -48.7% 14% -52.7%
20% -53.8% 7% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$33 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)14 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $95 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $77 −$70 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $20 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $60 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $107 17h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $95 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.61 · official $433.62 (match) · 33 history records