Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x72ec…3eb7 politics 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$15
politics 38% −$14
sports 14% −$35
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 120 -2.9% -12.2% 11% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 7% -9.7%
10% -20.6% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 4% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×4.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage133d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $390 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $482 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $157 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $215 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $217 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $152 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $161 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $195 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $156 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 19 $153 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $427 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $442 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $204 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in April? May 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $315 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $304 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $492 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 13 $253 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 13 $291 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $236 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $264 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $272 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $245 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $242 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $307 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $474 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $230 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $251 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $235 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 12h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $36 25h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $186 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $186 25d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $180 25d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $180 26d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 27d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 28d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $157 28d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $157 28d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $215 28d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 29d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $217 29d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $217 30d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $152 30d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $152 30d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $214 31d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $214 31d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $161 31d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $161 31d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 31d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 31d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $195 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 373 history records