Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72e8…3664 crypto 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$181 (-4%) realized −$180 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%106W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$84
14 days+$9
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$122
other 27% +$44
crypto 26% −$93
sports 7% +$7
politics 2% −$34
tech 2% −$37
finance 1% −$7
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +4.6% -5.4% 59% 59% -2.9%
≤30d 71 -4.1% -13.2% 49% 44% -10.3%
≤90d 227 -11.1% -19.5% 47% 36% -14.9%
all 227 -11.1% -19.5% 47% 36% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 36% -14.9%
10% -27.2% 30% -23.0%
15% -34.3% 24% -30.5%
20% -40.7% 19% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$180
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses106 / 121
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)227 / 229
History coverage77d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$9 +34%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$28 +56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$38 -93%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$80 +262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$22 +43%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 +$70 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 +$8 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$32 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 +$35 +49%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $26 −$20 -78%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $17 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$34 +129%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 +$22 +146%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 12 $30 −$12 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$20 +79%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +41%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$17 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $55 −$10 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $100 +$15 +15%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$4 -26%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $20 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 07 $25 −$5 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 07 $25 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $47 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $13 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $10 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 18h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 18h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $10 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $3 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $73 22h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 35h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $99 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $7 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $183 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $151 2d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 95¢ $105 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.20 · official $95.20 (match) · 499 history records