Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72e0…8eb8 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-3%) realized −$77 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%18W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days−$112
14 days−$123
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$106
crypto 9% −$2
economics 1% −$3
world 0% −$11
politics 0% −$6
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -12.5% -20.8% 40% 35% -17.3%
≤30d 43 -18.6% -26.4% 37% 33% -18.0%
≤90d 43 -18.6% -26.4% 37% 33% -18.0%
all 50 -14.7% -22.9% 36% 32% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 32% -18.2%
10% -30.2% 30% -26.0%
15% -37.0% 28% -33.2%
20% -43.2% 22% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses18 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage148d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $490 $487 −$3 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$1 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 27 $72 −$8 -10%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 27 $38 −$3 -8%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $141 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$40 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $318 +$159 +50%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +264%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $127 −$125 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $5 $0 -8%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $15 +$24 +158%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Pyramids FC win on 2026-02-04? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 27-February 2? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 2? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Feb 01 $1 +$2 +236%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Feb 01 $1 +$3 +327%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $502 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $27 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 16¢ $64 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 18¢ $35 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $139 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $317 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 18¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.88 · official $506.88 (match) · 110 history records