Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72df…7e76 other 165 markets active 12h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-2%) realized −$40 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%45W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$53
other 8% −$46
world 4% −$26
sports 3% +$9
politics 3% −$17
culture 0% −$8
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +98.3% +79.4% 60% 60% -39.2%
≤30d 8 +83.4% +65.9% 62% 62% +33.7%
≤90d 36 -42.9% -48.3% 22% 22% -50.0%
all 149 -18.0% -25.8% 30% 30% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 30% -11.6%
10% -32.9% 28% -20.0%
15% -39.4% 25% -27.8%
20% -45.4% 23% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses45 / 104
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)149 / 165
History coverage320d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 11¢ 24¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+123%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 53¢ 64¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 48¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 50¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +31%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 30 $10 +$24 +245%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $7 −$7 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia airdrop aid into Gaza? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 8? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K July 28–August 3? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 15 $5 +$6 +111%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Apr 08 $1 $0 +39%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 +$5 +525%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 17 $1 +$4 +354%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 17 $1 +$4 +400%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 18 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 14 $5 +$2 +32%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 76¢ $1 18d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 18d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 18d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 18d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 18d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 18d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 18d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 18d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 18d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 18d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 34d
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 34d
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? BUY Yes $1 35d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their BUY Yes 17¢ $1 35d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n BUY Yes $1 35d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o BUY Yes 51¢ $6 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 42d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 59d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 63d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY Yes $1 66d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.15 · official $45.15 (match) · 574 history records