Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
72 0x72df…baa8 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%38W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$5
crypto 6% $0
sports 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 51 -1.9% -11.2% 75% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses38 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage547d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in April? May 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in February? Mar 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 02 $11 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $5,267 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 24-31? Feb 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 12 $18 $0 +0%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Jan 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Jan 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Jan 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 15 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 31d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 61d
Will BNB reach $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $27 92d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will BNB reach $900 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $5 148d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 149d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $8 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $28 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $14 211d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $21 212d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 100¢ $7 242d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 243d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 243d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 272d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 272d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 273d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 301d
Will Solana reach $340 in August? BUY No 100¢ $27 302d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $29 334d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $10 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.21 · official $43.21 (match) · 106 history records