Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
72 0x72df…f8ea other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,198 (-3%) realized −$1,198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%9W / 48L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$760per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$13
30 days−$1,309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$20
politics 39% −$21
sports 8% −$1,185
economics 7% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -1.7% -11.1% 16% 8% -16.4%
≤90d 57 +6.0% -4.1% 16% 11% -12.1%
all 57 +6.0% -4.1% 16% 11% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 11% -12.1%
10% -13.3% 11% -20.5%
15% -21.6% 11% -28.2%
20% -29.3% 11% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,018) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$30 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$1,198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses9 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage77d
Avg bet$760
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $367 $367 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $796 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $913 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 04 $248 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 04 $385 +$1 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $401 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $322 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $300 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,404 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $506 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 May 25 $1,305 −$1,305 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 23 $34 +$28 +83%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $24 +$18 +76%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $789 +$2 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 29 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $491 $0 -0%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 22 $37 +$26 +70%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 22 $37 +$48 +129%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $28 +$62 +226%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $920 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $1,909 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1,064 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $367 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $332 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $333 5h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $693 3d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $694 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $795 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $796 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $829 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $830 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $725 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $727 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $892 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $893 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $656 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $657 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $726 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $727 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $788 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $789 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $752 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $752 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $916 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $918 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $763 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $765 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $911 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $913 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $400 17d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $401 17d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $321 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.51 · official $366.51 (match) · 146 history records