Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72de…c506 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$141 (-30%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$199
14 days−$147
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$106
crypto 5% −$26
sports 3% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -57.2% -61.3% 31% 31% -62.9%
≤30d 16 -37.0% -43.0% 44% 38% -39.8%
≤90d 16 -37.0% -43.0% 44% 38% -39.8%
all 16 -37.0% -43.0% 44% 38% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 38% -39.8%
10% -48.4% 25% -45.5%
15% -53.4% 25% -50.8%
20% -58.0% 12% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage23d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -88%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 −$15 -61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$24 +92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $51 +$27 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $101 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.14 · official $25.14 (match) · 33 history records