Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72dd…5ea8 crypto 533 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$520 (-3%) realized −$520 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate76%404W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days−$296
14 days−$199
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$361
crypto 12% −$46
other 9% −$253
weather 4% +$12
politics 1% −$6
world 1% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +4.8% -5.1% 62% 28% -17.4%
≤30d 139 -3.3% -12.5% 64% 38% -10.7%
≤90d 532 -4.2% -13.3% 76% 38% -12.5%
all 532 -4.2% -13.3% 76% 38% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 38% -12.5%
10% -21.6% 15% -20.9%
15% -29.2% 7% -28.5%
20% -36.1% 3% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$520
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses404 / 128
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions1
Markets (closed)532 / 533
History coverage66d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $165 +$10 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 +$6 +10%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$11 +365%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +86%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $20 −$4 -19%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $143 +$7 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $136 +$7 +5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $130 +$7 +5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $120 +$10 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 −$2 -8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $120 +$6 +5%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $109 +$10 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $99 +$11 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $117 −$18 -15%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $51 +$17 +33%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $91 +$26 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $81 +$10 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$19 -19%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $131 −$131 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $119 +$11 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $110 +$10 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $111 −$2 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $98 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $162 −$65 -40%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $101 +$53 +52%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $120 −$11 -9%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Fadi Bidan vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu Jun 11 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 10 $50 +$8 +16%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Tomas Martinez Jun 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $100 +$10 +10%
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 10 $101 +$24 +24%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $92 +$8 +9%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $77 −$7 -9%
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg Jun 09 $100 +$13 +13%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $98 −$10 -10%
Lyon: Matteo Martineau vs Mickael Kaouk Jun 09 $134 +$37 +28%
Lyon: Luca Staeheli vs Felix Balshaw Jun 09 $101 +$33 +33%
Lyon: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Clement Tabur Jun 09 $183 +$15 +8%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $231 −$47 -20%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $84 −$53 -62%
Cattolica: Petr Nesterov vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 09 $64 +$20 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $165 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $66 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $60 2h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes $3 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $3 6h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 7h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 8h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Joao Fonseca 13¢ $0 15h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Joao Fonseca 34¢ $16 15h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 40¢ $20 16h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $150 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $143 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $143 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $136 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $137 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $130 32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $130 33h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 92¢ $120 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $24 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $26 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $120 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $120 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $109 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $110 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $99 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 77¢ $99 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 90¢ $117 2d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin SELL FC Bayern Munchen 85¢ $67 2d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY FC Bayern Munchen 63¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.92 · official $3.92 (match) · 1119 history records