Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

72
0x72d8…5213
sports · 59 markets active 12h ago
0.0score
−$451,618 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$424,252 · open −$27,366
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$48,792
Realized−$424,252
Unrealized−$27,366
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$31,791
Open positions5
Markets (closed)70 / 59
Avg bet$42,006
Trades / day242.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 5 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$778,112
7 days−$562,600
14 days−$400,697
30 days−$424,252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 47¢ 19¢ $44,976 $18,242 −$26,734 (-59%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 32¢ $10,064 $9,912 −$152 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? No 43¢ 42¢ $10,018 $9,901 −$116 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 40¢ $10,080 $9,720 −$360 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1,020 $1,017 −$3 (-0%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ 0¢ $23,635 $0 −$23,635 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 55¢ 0¢ $49,500 $0 −$49,500 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $53,302 $0 −$53,302 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $10,192 $0 −$10,192 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Spurs 53¢ 0¢ $5,745 $0 −$5,745 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 51¢ 0¢ $64,005 $0 −$64,005 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $30,991 $0 −$30,991 (-100%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 30¢ 0¢ $1,062 $0 −$1,062 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 11¢ 0¢ $18,065 $0 −$18,065 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Hawks Hawks 43¢ 0¢ $113,422 $0 −$113,422 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spurs 76¢ 0¢ $62,468 $0 −$62,468 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $6,821 $0 −$6,821 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins 40¢ 0¢ $60,972 $0 −$60,972 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? No 56¢ 0¢ $2,274 $0 −$2,274 (-100%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 46¢ 0¢ $4,975 $0 −$4,975 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 35¢ 0¢ $110,557 $0 −$110,557 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Hawks 50¢ 0¢ $24,510 $0 −$24,510 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 31¢ 0¢ $102,703 $0 −$102,703 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $11,012 $0 −$11,012 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers San Francisco Giants 30¢ 0¢ $22,552 $0 −$22,552 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 12 $49,500 −$49,500 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $10,192 −$10,192 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 12 $5,745 −$5,745 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 12 $64,005 −$64,005 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 12 $18,065 −$18,065 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 12 $113,422 −$113,422 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 12 $62,468 −$62,468 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 12 $24,510 −$24,510 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? Jun 12 $11,012 −$11,012 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $585 −$585 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 12 $9,779 −$9,779 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $13,800 −$13,800 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-16? Jun 12 $30,427 −$30,427 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 12 $409 −$409 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers Jun 12 $176,192 −$176,192 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5 Jun 12 $102,973 −$102,973 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20,301 +$9,999 +49%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $40,159 +$28,305 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $2,070 +$1,930 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1,082 +$2,101 +194%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $3,412 +$3,588 +105%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $29,676 +$24,531 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $31,003 +$28,906 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $78,936 −$78,000 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104,621 −$102,703 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $101,987 −$100,450 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $126,913 +$96,765 +76%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $55,950 +$46,251 +83%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $25,642 +$20,358 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $103,662 +$92,858 +90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $57,746 −$56,926 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 06 $1,084 −$1,062 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $8,603 +$8,021 +93%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $8,498 +$9,300 +109%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $13,628 +$6,380 +47%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $24,079 +$30,978 +129%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $19,844 +$15,156 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $22,173 +$20,674 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $9,028 +$12,468 +138%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 05 $12,847 +$11,055 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $142,905 −$141,504 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $1,070 +$2,172 +203%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $55,100 +$73,040 +133%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $66,491 +$78,054 +117%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $31,437 −$30,991 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $22,552 −$22,552 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $5,777 +$9,607 +166%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $15,786 +$29,316 +186%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $28,868 +$21,132 +73%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 02 $50,364 +$49,076 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% +$334,802
other 6% −$93,336
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $49 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $32 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $2 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $4 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $14 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $6 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $29 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $72 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $30 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $91 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $7 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $4 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $7 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $59 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $16 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $4 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $8,400 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $8 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $22 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $4 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $38 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $72 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $7 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 48% -41.5%
≤30d 70 -4.2% -13.3% 49% 49% -21.7%
≤90d 70 -4.2% -13.3% 49% 49% -21.7%
all 70 -4.2% -13.3% 49% 49% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover242.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 49% -21.7%
10% -21.6% 49% -29.2%
15% ← realistic here -29.2% 47% -36.0%
20% -36.1% 41% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48,791.61 · official $48,791.61 (match) · 3500 history records