Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72d7…a3dd weather 458 markets active 2d ago coverage 175d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 174d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,238 (+6%) realized +$5,257 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate59%269W / 185L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$447
14 days−$389
30 days−$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$3,017
other 4% −$201
sports 1% −$70
crypto 0% +$69
politics 0% +$55
world 0% −$66
finance 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.2% -15.1% 50% 33% -33.5%
≤30d 70 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 34% -13.7%
≤90d 299 -14.2% -22.3% 48% 27% -12.4%
all 454 +0.3% -9.2% 59% 33% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 33% -6.4%
10% -17.9% 20% -15.3%
15% -25.8% 16% -23.5%
20% -33.1% 12% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$41 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$5,257
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses269 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)454 / 458
History coverage175d ⚠
Avg bet$180
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-61%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $11 +$4 (+50%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $182 −$182 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $488 −$313 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $65 +$4 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $108 +$42 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $25 −$12 -48%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$31 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $62 +$13 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $165 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $42 +$52 +124%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 −$35 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $459 −$12 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 09 $18 −$15 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 09 $21 −$13 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $48 +$52 +108%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $113 −$15 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 08 $26 −$22 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $108 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $568 −$160 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $124 +$45 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$10 +260%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 06 $12 +$16 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $72 +$46 +64%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $34 +$20 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 05 $10 +$4 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 05 $67 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 04 $206 −$43 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 04 $29 −$24 -84%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $11 +$28 +258%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$13 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 03 $221 +$89 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 2? Jun 03 $150 +$46 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 2? Jun 02 $332 +$16 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$3 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 1? Jun 01 $28 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$43 +943%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on May 31? May 31 $274 +$38 +14%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 1? May 31 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 30? May 30 $423 +$115 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 30? May 30 $40 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 30? May 30 $188 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 29? May 29 $310 +$23 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $182 44h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $210 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 82¢ $44 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $24 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 35¢ $52 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $55 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 11¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 29¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL No 32¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY No 28¢ $25 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $65 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.62 · official $31.62 (match) · 3500 history records