Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
72 0x72d5…f7c3 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$706 (+13%) realized +$706 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%24W / 8L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$644
7 days+$644
14 days+$644
30 days+$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$706
economics 2% +$8
politics 0% −$23
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 100% +4.4%
≤30d 1 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 100% +4.4%
≤90d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 86% 29% +2.9%
all 32 -3.8% -12.9% 75% 34% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 34% +3.1%
10% -21.3% 16% -6.8%
15% -28.9% 9% -15.8%
20% -35.9% 9% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$10 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.73 per $1 lost it wins $9.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$706
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses24 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage277d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 91¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $4,170 +$644 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $14 −$11 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 06 $28 −$15 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 28 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 26 $31 +$4 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $24 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 13 $22 +$4 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 04 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 01 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 27 $27 +$16 +59%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $7 +$7 +108%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-22? Jan 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? Jan 25 $50 +$44 +89%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Dec 10 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Sep 27 $3 $0 +4%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $7 −$4 -59%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $10 −$2 -23%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 22 $20 −$12 -62%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $96 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $608 1h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $652 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $4,814 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $4,170 23h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes $3 39d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 43d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL Yes $13 43d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 47d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 50d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 50d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 50d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 50d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 51d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 51d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 52d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $35 53d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $35 53d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 55d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 55d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 55d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 55d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 55d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 55d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 55d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 55d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 55d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 60d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 62d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 62d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $27 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.24 · official $32.24 (match) · 85 history records