Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72cf…b9c7 crypto 1419 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate90%1268W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
world 0% −$2
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +1.7% -8.0% 90% 46% -5.5%
≤30d 40 +1.7% -8.0% 90% 45% -5.6%
≤90d 316 -0.5% -10.0% 86% 80% -9.5%
all 1416 -0.3% -9.8% 90% 21% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 21% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1268 / 148
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1416 / 1419
History coverage124d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? No 89¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 87¢ 14¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 27 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $4.06 (match) · 3186 history records