Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72cb…f259 crypto 442 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$326 (-9%) realized −$326 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%198W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$12
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$200
sports 33% −$174
other 11% +$3
politics 3% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -9.8% -18.4% 54% 54% -29.9%
≤30d 44 -4.2% -13.3% 57% 50% -14.9%
≤90d 306 -34.4% -40.6% 37% 28% -29.3%
all 442 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 37% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 37% -18.0%
10% -27.1% 29% -25.9%
15% -34.1% 24% -33.1%
20% -40.6% 21% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses198 / 244
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)442 / 442
History coverage228d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 442 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +182%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$2 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +160%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -3%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 07 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 04 $14 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$4 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 02 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$4 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 02 $8 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $14 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 31 $6 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 28 $10 −$4 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 14 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 14 $5 +$5 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1762 history records