Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x72ca…b78e crypto 1365 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$603 (+3%) realized +$672 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%673W / 492L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day168.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,488
7 days−$2,726
14 days+$1,327
30 days+$2,587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$8,220
other 3% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 405 -62.1% -65.7% 20% 20% -32.0%
≤30d 1165 +13.2% +2.4% 58% 58% +2.1%
≤90d 1165 +13.2% +2.4% 58% 58% +2.1%
all 1165 +13.2% +2.4% 58% 58% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 58% +2.1%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 58% -7.7%
15% -16.4% 58% -16.6%
20% -24.6% 58% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$672
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses673 / 492
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1165 / 1365
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day168.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$37 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$12 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 12PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $22 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $22 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.58 · official $126.47 (match) · 3500 history records