Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
72 0x72c8…bc51 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$25
other 27% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +22.6% +10.9% 67% 67% +8.7%
≤30d 9 +22.6% +10.9% 67% 67% +8.7%
≤90d 9 +22.6% +10.9% 67% 67% +8.7%
all 9 +22.6% +10.9% 67% 67% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 67% +8.7%
10% +0.3% 67% -1.7%
15% -9.4% 67% -11.2%
20% -18.3% 67% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$37 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 +$48 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$29 +97%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $50 +$31 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $98 −$96 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $19 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $37 3h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Austria v BUY 9¢ $10 16h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 16h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 16h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $49 32h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Saudi BUY 8¢ $9 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $59 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $49 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 36h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records